MLB 2011

Yes folks, this morning starts a glorious day in the year: the baseball season. And because I cannot sleep, I will now make my baseball predictions for the year. As always, we will check in after the regular season to see how I did. And this year, if I am terribly wrong, i can blame the lack of sleep. The hot pick this year is some version of the Red Sox and Phillies, which happen to be the teams my wife and I, respectively, root for. I predicted them last year to meet, and it didn't happen, so I hope the hot picks are correct this year. As for me, last year I picked the Sox, because I thought they had the deeper pitching staff. But can you say "Cliff Lee"? National League East Phils 96-66, pitching wins despite the offense aging Braves 92-70, just a notch below Mets 81-81, I don't think they are as bad as others do Marlins 81-81, They should be better than this, just a hunch Nats 70-92, They shouldn't be better than this, just a hunch Central Reds 89-73, nice nucleus of talent Brewers 88-74, a little unsure of pitching, unlike many Cards 84-78, sure, why not? Cubs 83-79, like I need an exciting division race to watch Baseball Tonight? Astros 66-96, not feeling it Pirates 63-99, not feeling it, then add a "really" before the sentence West Giants 90-72, champs until dethroned Rockies 89-73, i hope to not see them in September Dodgers 79-81, too much drama Padres 77-85, too little drama D-backs 68-94, too little talent Playoffs: Giants over Braves (again) Phils over Reds (again) Phils over Giants (I wish I could write, again) American League East Boston 92-70, East is more balanced this year, Don't see the extremes in records Yanks 89-73, will trade for a pitcher before deadline. Rays 85-77, good, solid season, despite losing free agents Jay 82-80, little weak in pitching Orioles 77-85, improving under Showalter, but how do they break into top 3? Central Twins 90-72, always seem solid Tigers 90-72, why not another Tigers/Twins epic finish? Sox 81-81, I really don't know Royals, 66-96, the LA CLippers of baseball Indians 64-98, I don't see the talent West Rangers 83-79, win by default A's 81-81, I'm not as excited as everyone else Angels 80-82, a second year of Angels struggling? wow! M's 75-87, a second year of M's struggling? { } ( don't put wow! in { } ) Playoffs Sox beat the Tigers (in a battle of my two favorite American League teams) Twins beat the Rangers (finally get past the first round) Sox beat the Twins World Series Phils beat Sox in 7. Because the World Series and 7 games go perfect together. Enjoy!

A Perfect Halladay Weekend

This is a title I heard after Roy Halladay pitched his perfect game on Saturday. I was able to catch the game from the 5th inning on, and it was a pleasure to watch.

Not that I am complaining or anything, but I was so excited after watching that game, that it took me a few hours to fall asleep. But I suppose you can always sleep later.

That was really fun to watch. Baseball is such a symbol of life...you just never know what a day will bring.

On the Community Garden front, we had 10 volunteers work on Saturday. The garden is about 2/3 full of plants and seeds, and is a delight to watch. I'm so proud of everyone's efforts, and the hard work they put in.

Additional examples of the Greatness of Baseball

Three examples of why Baseball is the greatest of sports gifts...

1. Dallas Braden, perfect game.
For only the 19th time in baseball history, a perfect game was thrown. Basically, every 5 years, a perfect game is thrown...pretty unique when compared to how many games are played.

2. Jamie Moyer, Hall of Famer???.
Upon returning from the Trenton Thunder game on Friday, I turned on the TV to see that 47 year old Jamie Moyer threw a 2 hit shut out, becoming the oldest player ever to throw a shutout. He keeps on keeping on. I've said it before, it will be interesting if Jamie Moyer makes the Hall of Fame. Technically, he is below caliber, that is, he has been good for a long time, but great for only a season or two. But, 300 games is the magic number, and if he hangs on (and with the Phillies scoring 9 runs a game, why not?), he would get in. He also should be considered for being the first pitcher (besides Satchell Paige) to throw this late in life at a professional level...generations from now, when technology allows a 50 year old to be common among the players, they will look back at old Jamie Moyer.

3. Trenton Thunder moment.
A passed ball bounced off the backstop and rolled directly back to the pitcher...didn't have to move a step. How many millions of pitches have I seen in my life...and never saw that! That is what I love about baseball.

Ryan Howard and the Pittsburgh Pirates

I want to join the many Philly Phans that are thrilled to have Ryan Howard connected to the team for the next 5-6 years. He is the man. Yes, he strikes out a lot. Yes, first baseman often break down in their mid-thirties. But who cares when someone is hitting 45 homers and driving in 135 runs. I mean, who does that year after year? Literally no one has each year for the past four years.

People have said that he stinks compared to Albert Pujols. Yes, I would say that Albert is the best overall player in the majors...but he is going to stay in St. Louis. (By the way, I love when guys, even Yankees, stay with one team for their whole career.)

And at the end of the day, if Pujols makes $30 million a season, and Howard makes $25 million, and Howard hits more homers and rbi's, but Pujols has better average and slugging percentage, I'm happy with Howard. Plus, $30 million for Pujols will be about 30% of the Cardinal's payroll, while Howard's pay is 16% of the Phillies. Are Howard's stats twice as bad as Pujols? If not, he is a great deal. And his deal allows the team to have a premier slugger and build a supporting cast.

My heart goes out to the Pittsburgh Pirates. I don't know how you turn it around. They have such a great city and a great stadium. I wish they could field a better team. I mean, Milwaulkee is crushing them. It isn't even close. How do you break cycles of dysfunction?

2010 Baseball Predictions

I think there should be a website that holds prenosticators accountable. How well do the expert's predictions do each year? Do we just go on reading and listening to them, season after season without knowing if they have ever correctly predicted winners prior to the season?

Well, I'm starting with me. After the World Series, we will look back at this post to see how bad I did.

oh, I'm not an expert either. Just a fan.

NL EAST

Phillies, 91-71, 3 pennants for NL team since WW2 Cards?

Braves 89-73, good pitching...surprise.

Marlins 84-78, young talent...surprise.

Mets 81-81, Manuel takes fall...surprise.

Nats 71-91, Strasburg, 11 wins.



NL CENTRAL

Cards 90-72, good pitching wins.

Cubs 85-77, good until final week of season.

Brewers 84-78, good hitting gets you 3rd place.

Reds 78-84, I'll believe it when I see it.

Astros 77-85, nothing to report

Pirates 63-99, great city and ballpark



NL WEST

Giants 87-75, great starters

Rockies 86-76, everyone's pick

Dodgers 85-77, pitching?

Diamondbacks 74-88, a stadium acronym of BOB...really?

Padres 71-91, we miss you Tony Gwynn



AL EAST

Sox 95-67 best rotation

Yanks 94-68 com' mon Rays

Rays 85- 77, I can't put them ahead of Yanks

O's 70-92, getting better?

Jays 68-94, getting worse?



AL CENTRAL

Twins 88-74, solid all around

Tigers 86-76, hope they are successful

W. Sox 82-80, who knows?

Royals 71-91, Where have you gone George Brett?

Indians 66-96, trading away best players, traditionally not good strategy



AL WEST

Angels 85-77, kings until dethroned

M's 83-79, getting better

Rangers 81-81, believe it when I see it

A's 79-83, no passion, I mean me...for this team

Phils over Giants in 5: nailbiting

Braves over Cards in 4: last one for Bobby

Phils over Braves in 6: its 1993 all over again

Sox over Angels in 3: again

Yanks over Twins in 5: again

Sox over Yanks in 7: again. sorry hon, its going to be stressful.

Sox over Phils in 7: deeper rotation wins.

love to hear you predictions. see you in November.

oh, and who said anything about an east coast bias...Georgia is west of here, isn't it?

One Winning Team

Well folks, in the interest of full disclosure. Here is my fantasy Baseball team for the 2010 season. I am in an ESPN auction league, which gives you $260 dollars (fake, of course), to bid on players against 9 other competitors.

I always shy away from spending too much on any one player, which usually makes my teams lack excitement, but also usually puts me in the top third of the league. Does the past guarantee the future? Absolutely not. But that is why we play the game, or in the world of fantasy, that is why other, better athletically equipped real people play the game for us.

Infielders
C Miguel Montero, Ari C, don't know anything about him, had a few extra bucks for a catcher.
1B Kendry Morales, LAA 1B He helped me out last year, and hence, can do so this year.
2B Jose Lopez, Sea 2B solid, not spectacular.
3B Kevin Youkilis, Bos 3B, 1B For my wife, of course, and for me, hopefully .310, 30 and 105
SS Stephen Drew, Ari SS solid, not spectacular
2B/SS Jason Bartlett, TB SS solid, not spectacular. For 2B/SS, if not Utley, then it isn't worth it.
1B/3B Derrek Lee, ChC 1B I tried to get someone to overpay, and ending up being me.

Outfielders
Jayson Werth, Phi OF He's worth it.
Adam Lind, Tor OF, DH He's also worth it, though most don't know him.
Bobby Abreu, LAA OF Got stuck with him, but an old favorite. Emphasis on the old.
Nelson Cruz, Tex OF Numbers last year were real good. Expect a big downfall.
Shane Victorino, Phi OF Hopefully, he'll be flyin' to 40 stolen bases.
UTIL Billy Butler, KC 1B Don't know him, but numbers were good last year.

Starting Pitchers
Cliff Lee, Sea SP Of course, the news broke moments after drafting him that he is on DL.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Col SP a rockies pitcher??? We are living in a post-humidor world.
Cole Hamels, Phi SP Am I a sucker? Yeah.
Wandy Rodriguez, Hou SP last year was real good.
Ted Lilly, ChC SP I was running out of money, so sue me.
John Lackey, Bos SP best 3 starter in mlb.
Ben Sheets, Oak SP had a dollar left, and a dream.

Relievers
Joakim Soria, KC RP stud.
Andrew Bailey, Oak RP second year dud?
Rafael Soriano, TB RP is Tampa Bay in the mud?
Trevor Hoffman, Mil RP old as crud.*
Carlos Marmol, ChC RP worse than Elmer Fudd.

So all in all, I'm happy with my team. My prediction, a solid 2nd place, 6 points behind the winner.

*Have I mentioned that I am now at the age when announcers call players old and slowing down...AND THEY ARE USUALLY ABOUT MY AGE?

Play ball.